| 24 June 2010
Last week, Rob Neyer made this observation about Mike Scioscia and the Angels:
This is Mike Scioscia's 11th season managing the Angels. In those 11 seasons, the Angels have outperformed their run differential by 27 wins. That's a lot.
...
Those 27 "extra" wins haven't been spread out evenly over those 11 seasons, though. From 2000 through 2005 the Angels never strayed far from their runs scored and allowed, and overall were actually three wins worse than their theoretical record: +1, -2, -2, -3, +1, +2.But in 2006, Scioscia's teams began to consistently outplay their run differentials: +5, +4,+12, +5, +4 (so far in 2010).
I don't know if this is the best five-year run any manager's ever had, but I suspect it's one of the more impressive you'll find.
Well, as we all know, in this day and age a question like that ("what is the best five-year run as a manager, Pythagorean-record-wise?") just cannot go unanswered. The data is there and just too easy to play with.
So I played with it. Below is a complete list of all managers who beat their five-year Pythagorean record by 20 or more wins. As you'll see, there are quite a few repeats(I used the same formula as Baseball Reference to calculate Pythagorean records):
(Click "Read More" to continue reading.)
Manager Years Pyth. Diff. Joe Torre 2001-2005 +32 Earl Weaver 1977-1981 +29 Joe Torre 2000-2004 +29 Joe Torre 2002-2006 +28 Mike Scioscia 2005-2009 +28 Earl Weaver 1976-1980 +26 Connie Mack 1927-1931 +25 Mike Scioscia 2004-2008 +24 Earl Weaver 1978-1982 +24 Tony La Russa 1988-1992 +22 Walter Alston 1959-1963 +22 Connie Mack 1928-1932 +21 Joe Torre 2003-2007 +21 Connie Mack 1929-1933 +21 Ron Gardenhire 2002-2006 +20 Jim Leyland 1990-1994 +20 Joe Torre 1998-2002 +20 Earl Weaver 1974-1978 +20
The +30 Pythagorean differential that Rob shows Scioscia currently on pace for this year would give him the second-best five-year differential in history.
Clearing the list up, we really see three or four names over and over again, with a couple of others in there for good measure: Joe Torre, 1998-2007 (no 1999); Earl Weaver, 1974-1982 (no 1975); Connie Mack, 1927-1932; and Mike Scioscia, 2004-2009. Walter Alston, Tony La Russa, Jim Leyland, and Ron Gardenhire fill the list out with a single five-year period each.
In the periods represented here, we find eight world champions and four additional pennant-winners. Leyland, Gardenhire, and Scioscia are the only three without even a visit to the World Series during their impressive runs. Of course, in the days of Walter Alston, Connie Mack, and even Earl Weaver, it was a bit easier to make it to the big stage than it is today.
History tends to look at the managers on this list as some of the best ever (only Gardenhire would raise eyebrows in that regard). At the same time, they weren't exactly working with lousy teams: the late-90s Yankees, the early'30s A's, the early-Los Angeles Dodgers, and the mid-70s Orioles are all famously great teams. It's the same chicken-and-egg problem we always encounter when evaluating managers (for example), and we aren't going to make any progress in that argument with this list.
Still, the fact that Scioscia (and Gardenhire) find themselves on the list can only be a positive for their legacy. Scioscia's current streak may not be the best ever, as Rob asked, but it's pretty close. And with so few managers in history ever performing at even a +20 Pythagorean differential in a five-year period, we should probably take notice (I suspect Angels fans already have).
