Milestone Odds from 2001

Written by Larry Granillo | 19 April 2010

It's not exactly groundbreaking to say that, yes, ten years is a really long time. But sometimes it's fun to be reminded just how long ten years really is.

I got home from work this afternoon to find a package waiting for me that my brother had mailed out a few weeks ago. It was a box of baseball books that he wasn't going to be able to use anymore when moving from Hawaii back to the mainland. There were a few random books, a number of older Sporting News, etc. preview magazines, and five or six years' worth of old Stats Inc./Bill James Handbooks from the early part of the decade.

If you know me at all, then you know that this is a great little windfall. In fact, it didn't even take me more than one book to find something interesting

Looking through the 2001 "Bill James Presents Stats Inc. Major League Handbook" (complete with a very fresh-faced Alex Rodriguez on the cover), I found the section titled "Career Assessments" (or "Aaron Watch") at the back of the book. This is the section where Bill James gives the various chances that his method predicts for a certain player to reach key career milestones. For example, how likely was it, after the year 2000 season, for Ken Griffey, Jr., who was sitting on 438 home runs, to reach 500 career home runs? The answer: 96%.

It was in perusing this table (of any active player who had a 1% chance or more at reaching either 500 career home runs or 3,000 career hits) that it occurred to me just how long ten years can really be. Here are some interesting names or percentages on the table at the time.

The "Good Call" Guys

Ken Griffey, Jr.: 96% chance at 500 HRs, 90% chance at 600 HRs
Barry Bonds: 100% chance at 500 HRs, 89% chance at 600 HRs, 21% chance at 700 HRs, 6% chance at 756 HRs
Sammy Sosa: 94% chance at 500 HRs, 89% chance at 600 HRs 
Rafael Palmiero: 93% chance at 500 HRs
Derek Jeter: 33% chance at 3,000 hits

(Click "Read More" to continue reading.)

The "That Made Sense, But It Just Never Panned Out" Guys

Mark McGwire: 97% at 600 HRs, 51% at 700 HRs, 23% at 756 HRs, 10% at 800 HRs
Jeff Bagwell: 64% at 500 HRs
Albert Belle: 71% at 500 HRs
Vladimir Guerrero: 55% chance at 500 HRs, 27% chance at 3,000 hits
Chipper Jones: 37% at 500 HRs, 15% chance at 3,000 hits
Roberto Alomar: 64% chance at 3,000 hits
Ken Griffey, Jr.: 35% chance at 3,000 hits

The "Really? Those Guys Had That Kind of Chance?" Guys

That High?!
Jose Canseco: 94% chance at 500 HRs, 10% chance at 600 HRs
Juan Gonzalez: 87% at 500 HRs, 29% chance at 600 HRs
Greg Vaughn: 33% chance at 500 HRs
Nomar Garciaparra: 21% chance at 3,000 hits
Chuck Knoblach: 8% chance at 3,000 hits

That Low?!
Manny Ramirez: 59% chance at 500 HRs, 29% chance at 600 HRs
Rafael Palmiero: 39% chance at 3,000 hits
Frank Thomas: 53% chance at 500 HRs
Gary Sheffield: 41% chance at 500 HRs
Jim Thome: 34% chance at 500 HRs
Craig Biggio: 7% chance at 3,000 hits

The "How In the World Did Those Guys Get on the List?" Guys

Dean Palmer: 27% chance at 500 HRs, 4% chance at 600 HRs
Richard Hidalgo: 19% chance at 500 HRs, 6% chance at 600 HRs
Tony Batista: 18% chance at 500 HRs, 4% chance at 600 HRs
Ben Grieve: 5% chance at 500 HRs
Darin Erstad: 20% chance at 3,000 hits
Neifi Perez: 18% chance at 3,000 hits
Jeff Cirillo: 11% chance at 3,000 hits

Of course, these are all percentages, so the acknowledgment that they are/or could be wrong is inherent in the statement. Even still, it feels ridiculous now to see that Dean Palmer, only 10 years ago, had a 27% chance at hitting 500 home runs. (Dean Palmer? I'm not even sure the last time I thought of him.) Or to think that Craig Biggio had only a 7% chance at getting to 3,000 hits, a smaller chance than Omar Vizquel, Chuck Knoblach, or Jeff Cirillo.

That's what can happen in ten years. It's a nice reminder to have every once in a while. If anyone can find a link to the current milestone odds, it might be interesting to figure out who the Dean Palmers and Craig Biggios of today are. Because, remember, they're always out there.