| 17 March 2011
Taking a look at current draft boards, there are a number of names that could be mentioned here along with Bautista, but I'll try to give a quick rundown on my reasoning here.
Jose Bautista, 3B/OF
Bautista hit 54 HR with 124 RBI last season, and that has ignited his stock. He is currently being valued as the 5th best third baseman out there, and being taken before the 4th round of most drafts. Signing a contract extension and gaining 3B eligibility has done nothing but increase the buzz about Toronto's slugger. This is insanity.
Don't get me wrong, the power (at least most of it) is real. But let's have a quick reality check here: Bautista is due for a big regression in home runs; our projections have him with 31 HR this season, but only 85 RBI, further decreasing his value. Add to that that he is a career .244 hitter over 2744 Major League PA, and even in his career season, he hit only .260. Average easily fluctuates about 30 points from season to season, so don't underestimate the fantasy hit you could take from carrying a very low-average hitter in your lineup (just ask Carlos Pena owners from last year). Bautista is only marginally better than average at best this year, and not worth anything more than a 10th round pick or so.
The comparison that comes to mind is Carlos Pena. After a breakout 2007 in which he hit .282 with 46 HR and 121 RBI, Pena was being snapped up in 2008 drafts. He then went on to a .247 average with 31 HR and 102 RBI, and has only slipped from there. Pena always had prodigious power, but he suddenly became valuable with playing time. The problem is that players always regress to their true talent levels, and pitchers adjust to hitters. Bautista won't see much to hit this season, and it will impact his numbers. Buyer beware.
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