| 22 April 2011
After letting Cliff Lee walk this offseason, the Texas Rangers have gotten some surprisingly strong pitching from their youngsters in the rotation. Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando have combined to go 7-2 with a 2.53 ERA in 10 starts, providing almost 7 innings a start. Not bad for a couple of post-hype prospects and a setup reliever. It's actually Colby Lewis who's bringing up the rear, sporting poor fastball velocity in 2011.
Going forward, who's going to have the best year? Let's take a look at some of the early 2011 data, as well as 2010 performance:
| Pitcher | Year | ERA | xFIP | K/9 | Sw Stk% | BB/9 | F-Strike% |
| Harrison | 2011 | 1.88 | 3.85 | 5.97 | 7.0 | 2.83 | 55.1 |
| Harrison | 2010 | 5.29 | 4.65 | 5.03 | 6.7 | 3.71 | 56.5 |
| Holland | 2011 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 7.32 | 9.9 | 2.29 | 53.6 |
| Holland | 2010 | 4.44 | 4.15 | 8.68 | 8.2 | 3.86 | 55.8 |
| Ogando | 2011 | 2.33 | 4.43 | 4.19 | 8.1 | 1.86 | 56.3 |
| Ogando* | 2010 | 1.30 | 3.69 | 8.42 | 10.8 | 3.46 | 62.6 |
* as reliever
The 25-year old Harrison is showing a sustained increase in velocity the past two years (avg 92.5 mph, up from 92.2 mph last year and 90.9 mph two years ago). The increased SO/BB ratio shows in the moderately improved xFIP. That being said, Harrison's fastball and slider have not been above-average offerings yet, so there could be some regression in store. If he is able to maintain an earned run average just south of 4.00 this year, he will be a very valuable cog in this rotation for Texas.
As you can see, Holland may have made the biggest step forward from 2010. He's bumped his swinging strike rate and really cut the walks this season (it's still very early, of course). He's just 24 years old this year, is flashing the best fastball of his career, mixing in his other offerings more, and that suggests there is still some upside to come.
Ogando was a very, very good reliever in 2010, and he's showed poise and control as a starter this year. It's impressive for a reliever to avoid walks the way he has so far. He's relied mainly on his excellent fastball and the slider so far, but he has a changeup he can mix in as well. His low strikeout rate has kept his FIP in the mid-4s, but the swinging strike rate suggests that number should come up a bit. As the elder statesman of the bunch, the 27-year old Ogando is probably the poorest bet to maintain his ERA for the rest of the year.
Even though he has the highest ERA of the three thus far, Holland is the pitcher who is likely to turn in the best season for the Rangers in 2011. After that, it's a tossup between Harrison and Ogando. Harrison is the "safer" bet, while Ogando has some more upside. It'll be interesting to see who loses their spot once Tommy Hunter and Brandon Webb return.
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