| 03 December 2011
Call it lucky, call it too early to tell, call it whatever you want, but there’s simply no denying the changing of the guard so far this season in the NHL. Whether it’s on an individual basis or in the standings, things are certainly looking different.
The struggles of Alexander Ovechkin, Eric Staal and Jarome Iginla to name a few, have been well documented but they aren’t the only ones that have failed to continue their pace from last season. Of the top 10-point getters from 2010-11, only 2 of them are in that same company this year (D. Sedin & S. Stamkos), while 5 of them have fallen outside the top 40 and 2 outside the top 100 (Jarome Iginla and Henrik Zetterberg). The same goes for the top 10 goal scorers from last season, with only 4 of them in the top 50. On the flip side, most of the players that ARE doing well this year would be considered somewhat of a surprise, 4 of the top 10 weren’t even in the top 85 in scoring last year. Every hockey expert at the beginning of the year would have predicted Claude Giroux, Daniel Sedin and Steven Stamkos to be near the top of the points list, and to their credit they are, but who would have predicted Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul to be 1, 3 in scoring at this point of the season (let’s be honest Leafs fans). Who would have thought Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the 18-year old, baby faced kid that wasn’t even supposed to make the roster past the 9 game mark would be 5th in scoring after 26 games. Hindsight may be 20/20 but you just can’t predict things like that. He’s not the only youngster ripping it up though. Of the top 30-point getters at the moment, 15 of them are under 25 years old. A lot has been made of the ridiculous money being handed out to young guys on their second contracts (ie Drew Doughty, Tyler Myers etc.) but with the current state of the game and the emphasis on speed, size and conditioning, the young guns are getting it done better then anyone else in the league right now and GM’s are well aware of this. Hell, 3 of the top 25 in the league right now aren’t even of legal drinking age in the U.S. (RNH, Seguin, Skinner). Imagine Canada’s world junior squad if the NHL released those guys for the tournament. WOW. Obviously that won’t happen, but it’s a nice thought.
The team standings have had their fair share of surprises as well. In the Eastern Conference Florida, Toronto and Ottawa would have themselves in the playoffs if the season were to end today. The last time all three actually DID make it to the postseason: 1999-2000.
In a division with Tampa Bay and Washington, the thought of Florida leading the Southeast was laughable a few months ago but buoyed by the goal scoring and leadership of Kris Versteeg, Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss and Brian Campbell (all of which, excluding Weiss, were off-season acquisitions) the Panthers have molded themselves into a pretty good hockey club that doesn’t give up or back down to anyone, don’t write them off just yet.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are always a tough team to judge early or late in a season, it’s always the middle that gets them, but this year they’ve been able to maintain, or at least not ruin, their 7-2-1 start. The fact that the Leafs are 1 point back of the division lead and 4 points out of 1st in the East without James Reimer for 20 of their 25 games just shows the potential this team has once he gets back in between the pipes (set to return tonight). How genius does Brian Burke look right now after trading Francois Beauchemin for Joffrey Lupul and Jake Gardiner. He may take a lot of slack for the Seguin-Kessel deal, (which doesn’t look ALL that bad now does it) but what he’s done in the Lupul deal and the Phaneuf deal, as well as some of the key signings he’s made, have a lot of people in Toronto FINALLY buying in to the Burkey regime. Injuries have plagued the Leafs all through their roster but thanks in large part to their depth and a number of studs waiting in the wings for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies, things are certainly looking up T.O.
Down the Q.E.W in Ottawa, the Sens have shocked just about everyone in the hockey world, including me. After starting 1-5-0 it looked as though this would be the Sens team everyone thought they would be, awful. Head coach Paul MacLean has been able to right the ship though, and as we stand now the Sens sit in the 8th seed in the East. A good mix of veterans and prospects have meshed well in Ottawa and they seem to have found a style of hockey that’s tough to beat. Jason Spezza seems to have returned to form, which has no doubt been a contributing factor but how about the play of Erik Karlsson and Milan Michalek. Karlsson, the 21-year-old kid from Landsbro, Sweden is quickly making a name for himself as one of the premier offensive defenseman in the game and should be a stalwart on their blue line for years to come. As for Michalek, his 15 goals in 25 games have him on pace for 49 snips, shattering his career-high of 26. Making room for these three teams in the playoff spots are Washington, Montreal and Tampa. But more on that later
Over in the west, Minnesota, St. Louis and Dallas have taken the conference by storm. I, for one, wasn’t sure what to expect out of Minnesota going into this season. Their big offseason trades with the Sharks (essentially Havlat and Burns for Heatley and Setoguchi) were somewhat of a risk, but they definitely seem to have paid off. Since hiring Head coach Mike Yeo in the offseason (promoted from their AHL club) everything seems to be going right and they now sit not only atop their division and conference but 1st in the entire NHL. The team, just like their Captain Mikko Koivu, thrive off of being underrated. The Wild have done it by association. They don’t have a guy in the top 40 in scoring, or go out there and play the flashiest hockey, but what they do is simple: win. Ranked 26th in the NHL in offense but fourth defensively, they owe a lot of their current winning ways to their goaltending tandem of Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding. The Wild are simply trying to show that defense really can win championships.
After being the only team from the Pacific division not to make the playoffs last year, the Dallas Stars came into this season hungry. With the 5th lowest payroll in the league and the departure of their “star” Brad Richards, it didn’t really look like they were poised to do much. But then they burst out of the gate with an 11-3-0 start and put any criticism behind them. Their 6-6-1 November was a little shaky, but they struggled with injuries and coach Glen Gulutzan said the month was “productive” and that they grew as a team and will be better for it. They sit atop their division and at 3rd in the Western conference Joe Nieuwendyk has shown his value as a GM. Jamie Benn and Loui Eriksson have taken the reins in the scoring for the Stars, and the resurgence of Sheldon Souray has been another nice storyline, but Kari Lehtonen, at 13-4 with a .926 Save % has been their best player and shows no signs of slowing down.
The St. Louis Blues just a few weeks ago looked like a team playing without a purpose. They struggled out of the gates and things really just never clicked. That was until they hired Ken Hitchcock. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team change so drastically so quickly as St. Louis this year. Hitchcock is known to have teams that get off to quick starts when he takes over, but this has been incredible. At 8-1-2 since taking the reins they now find themselves at 5th in the West and the guys have really bought into Hitch’s system. Key players to watch for the Blues are David Backes, a rough, gritty player that can also put the puck in the net, and their goaltender Brian Elliot, who has really come out of nowhere after being shelled his last few seasons to overtake the number one job in St. Louis.
So which players can keep their hot start going and which players will go back to mediocrity? Which players started slow but will break out of their slump? I don’t have a crystal ball, but here’s my opinion. Anyone that doubts Phil Kessel’s scoring prowess must either be from Boston, or have something seriously wrong with them (what’s the difference some might say? Kidding, kidding) If you look at Phil’s stats through the years he’s been streaky to say the least. In his 5 seasons in the NHL he’s had a goal drought of at least 9 games at some point in each, with a 13, 12, 11, 10, and multiple 9 and 8 game droughts thrown in there as well. The difference this year? No more than 3 games without a goal. With both the quickest release and the quickest legs in maybe the entire league, I see him easily getting over the 40-goal plateau for the first time in his career. His line mate Joffrey Lupul, who’s already only 1 point back of his total from last season, has been a great story. Just a throw in on the Beauchemin trade (as mentioned earlier) he has certainly resurrected his career in Toronto. He is currently on pace for 98 points, yes 98 points. As nice as it would be for himself and for Leaf land for him to get to that, I really don’t think he can keep going at this rate. This is a guy that’s career high is 53 points. Certainly, health permitting, he will surpass that, but I see him finishing at around 75 points. One player I do see falling off their pace in the near future is Kris Versteeg. While he has been thriving with the first line minutes he’s gotten this year, I think teams will adapt to Florida’s play as the season goes on and just don’t think he can keep scoring at this rate. As for those who will turn it around, there’s a few guys that come to mind right away. Alexander Ovechkin and Henrik Zetterberg. With Ovi it’s pretty simple. He’s just too good not to be scoring. The Boudreau drama is behind him now and I look for him to get back that scoring touch. Whether it’s this week, this month or after the all-star break, it’ll come. Zetterberg meanwhile, just hasn’t been putting up the numbers he usually does but hasn’t been all that bad. With a team around him like the Red Wings have it’s just a matter of time before the puck starts finding the back of the net again. Two guys to look out for, on opposite sides of the spectrum are Alexander Semin and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Semin could go a number of ways. The Capitals certainly are hoping he gets back to his 40-goal potential, but the way he’s been playing this year has him watching from the press box. It will be interesting to see how long the Caps are willing to wait before looking at trading him. Nugent- Hopkins is an interesting one because no one knows just how good this kid can really be. 5th in scoring as a rookie? The sky’s the limit and it must be fun to be an Oilers fan.
As for the team side of things, I can’t help but think most things will return to the way they were as the season progresses. In the East there’s just no way Washington and Tampa can miss the playoffs. They’re struggling right now that’s for sure but they just have too good of rosters to miss out. As was expected at the beginning of the year, the fight for spots 5 through 8 will be intense. Assuming Pittsburgh, Boston, Philly, Washington and Tampa make it that leaves 3 spots for Florida, NYR, Toronto, Montreal, Buffalo, Carolina and New Jersey to fight for (sorry Ottawa, Winnipeg, Carolina and NYI).
The west is nearly impossible to predict. With 4 points separating 2nd from 10th things are going to be tight all year. You’d have to think Vancouver gets themselves back into a playoff spot soon, as does Nashville, but one never knows. The only locks in my opinion are Detroit, Chicago, LA, SJ and Vancouver. That leaves three spots between Minnesota, Dallas, St. Louis, Phoenix, Edmonton, Colorado Nashville and Anaheim, who should get back to their winning ways under Bruce Boudreau (I don’t see Columbus or Calgary having much of a chance here). Who will get those spots is up for debate, but the Wild and Stars certainly have the upper hand at the moment.
Agree/Disagree? Who do you think will make it?
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