01 September 2010
Additions, Departures, Big Questions & Key Match-ups
2009 Record: 7-9
2010 Prediction: 9-7
Of the teams I have must missing the playoffs in 2010, the Dolphins would be my choice as the team most likely to get in. QB Chad Henne enters the season with a full season as the starter under his belt. The defense looks resurgent. The running game, which was missing Ronnie Brown for the last half of 2010 and was great anyway, will be great again. What’s not to love? Were they not stuck in a division with two other playoff caliber teams, the Dolphins’ prospects would look even better, but they’ll need to get past the Jets and Patriots first.
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Key Arrivals
WR Brandon Marshall (Trade), LB Karlos Danby (FA), OG Richie Incognito (FA), DE Jared Odrick (R), LB Koa Misi (R), DE Charles Grant (FA)
Key Departures
WR Ted Ginn, Jr., LB Akin Ayodele, S Gibril Wilson, S Nate Jones, OG Justin Smiley, LB Joey Porter, LB Jason Taylor
New look defense with an expanded role for 2nd year player Chris Clemons
The Big Questions
1. How good can the Dolphins defense be this year? Last year, the Dolphins defense was, by and large, average. They lacked some playmaking ability, and they didn’t get to the quarterback enough or force enough turnovers. The Dolphins are counting on rookies Jared Odrick and Koa Misi to give them the pass rushing they lost when Joey Porter left, and I think they will, at least, fill the void. The addition of Karlos Dansby helps a lot. Dansby’s athleticism gives the defense an aspect it lacked in 2009. Ultimately, there is a lot riding on a young secondary, but I think they may answer the bell in 2010. The Dolphins defense will be better in 2010. Not great, but above average.
2. Can Brandon Marshall still be Brandon Marshall in Miami’s offense? Let’s look at it a couple of ways. First, Marshall goes from the 13th ranked passing offense in Denver to the 20th ranked passing offense in Miami. That’s a passing offense in Miami that had a first year starting quarterback and no #1 receiver. Does anyone think Chad Henne isn’t at least as good as Kyle Orton? This is also an offense where Davone Bess caught 78 passes last season. Anyone think Brandon Marshall isn’t better than Davone Bess? Marshall has caught 100 passes in three straight seasons. I don’t see why he can’t do that (or get pretty close to it) again, especially on a team where defenses have to overplay the run and where he will be the #1 receiving option on almost every play. Brandon Marshall will be just fine in Miami’s offense.
3. Is Chad Henne ready to take a major step forward this year? Henne played pretty well last year, and his numbers bear that out, with one exception. He threw just 12 TDs while throwing 14 INTs. The touchdown figure should go up with the upgrade to the receiving corps. At least he won’t have Ted Ginn dropping passes in the open field. The INTs are on him. Henne has another year of experience and he has looked really good in stretches. While I would stop short of calling this a breakout year for him, look for him to go from a middle of the pack quarterback to a solid performer in 2010.
Key Matchups
Week 3 vs. NY Jets: The Dolphins started 0-3 last year and it cost them. They did, however, beat the NY Jets twice last season, and I think the Dolphins wildcat heavy offense gives the Jets’ attacking defensive scheme some problems. They need to continue that mastery in 2010 as they will be running neck and neck with New York all season long for playoff positioning.
Week 10 vs. Tennessee: Weeks 2-9 is the toughest part of the Dolphins schedule, and every single game in that stretch will be a struggle. This is where the schedule eases up and the Dolphins must hit the ground of this last stretch of games running. The Titans will be a good team this year, but this is a game the Dolphins need to be able to win in their own building.
Week 17 vs. New England: When I went through the schedule assigning Ws and Ls, this is the game that kept Miami out of the playoffs. I don’t think that’s a reach, I think that’s exactly what this game will mean for at least one if not both of these teams. It’s New England on the road in the middle of winter. That might actually help the warm weather Dolphins, who like to grind it out a lot more than Brady & Co. Stay tuned.
