02 September 2010
Additions, Departures, Big Questions & Key Match-ups.
2009 Record: 7-9
2010 Prediction: 4-12
Time to take my medicine - I know our GuysGirl leader Blythe is a big Jaguars fan and no Jaguars fan wants to see a 4-12 prediction, but I just don’t think the Jags will do much better than that. That’s partially because I think the schedule is tougher than last year, and partially because I believe the Jags played over their heads for a little while last year, falling back to earth at the end of the season by losing four straight, including one to Cleveland. Throw in a lackluster offseason, and I think this ends badly for Jacksonville.
Hit the title/read more to continue reading the NFL season preview for the Jaguars...
Key Additions
DE Aaron Kampman (FA), LB Kirk Morrison (Trade), DT Tyson Alualu (R), G Justin Smiley (Trade)
Key Departures
OT Tra Thomas, DT John Henderson, WR Torry Holt, LB Clint Ingram
Pictured: the Jaguars’ offense (actual size)
The Big Questions
1. Is this a make or break year for David Garrard (and which is it)? David Garrard had a terrific 2007, where he posted a 102 passer rating in 12 games, throwing 18 TDs and only 3 INTs. But he has never come close to duplicating those numbers. Although he’s a solid 60% completion type passer, he’s never put up more than 15 TDs and has thrown double digit interceptions the last two seasons. He consistently posts a passer rating in the low 80s. That doesn’t mean he’s lousy, but it does mean he’s basically a game manager (in the positive sense of the word) and not a game-changer. I think this is probably Garrard’s last stand with Jacksonville, and I don’t think there’s enough talent on the offense to elevate his game. Maurice Jones-Drew is terrific and Mike Sims-Walker is for real, but after that the offense is REALLY thin. It’s a Break Year, I fear.
2. Can Maurice Jones-Drew continue to be an elite back? Outside of Jacksonville and the Jones-Drew immediate family, I don’t think there’s a bigger MJD fan in the NFL than me. I just love the way this kid runs with power, speed and vision. He’s a true homerun hitter out of the backfield. I won’t tell you he’s going to break down because of he’s undersized and he’s still young at 25, but I will tell you that he went from a career high 197 carries in 2008 to 312 in 2009. Look, it’s a league-wide reality that running backs break down early. They don’t last and the more you grind it with them and the more you don’t use a two- or three-back rotation, the quicker you wear out your guy. 300+ carries? Are they trying to kill this kid? Maurice Jones-Drew will be an elite back again this season, but if they don’t do something to lessen the wear and tear, he won’t still be one for long.
3. Tyson Alualu: genius pick or huge draft day screw up? The answer to this question is always the same, no matter whether you’re talking about Peyton Manning or Ki-Jana Carter (look it up): talk to me after a season or two and I’ll tell you how good the pick was. If Alualu becomes a dominant presence in the middle (something the Jaguars need now that both pieces of their epic Marcus Stroud/John Henderson DT tandem are gone), then it was genius. Otherwise. . . I will say two things about this pick, however. I believe they could have traded down and still gotten this player (in which case they may have been able to finagle getting the linebacker they coveted in round 2 instead of trading for Kirk Morrison) and I also believe there were players available at need positions who would not have been a reach at this pick. The Jaguars get to silence everyone if Alualu shines, but I don’t think they will get the chance. This was a Draft Day Screw Up.
Key Matchups
Week 1 vs. Denver: This game has some added significance for the Jaguars because the schedule gets pretty tough almost immediately: they face the Chargers, Eagles and Colts after this. Any hope of a strong start has to begin with holding serve against a Broncos team that should be beatable.
Week 10 vs. Houston: If the Jags are better than I am predicting, then a game like this: at home vs. a mid-level team like the Texans will be a game they can win. The AFC South is a pretty tough division so the Jags need to give their divisional rivals a tough time in their own building.
Week 16 vs. Washington: Drawing the NFC East will not help the Jags’ final win total (by contrast, they got to play the NFC West last season), but the Redskins figure to be out of it or needing a lot of help by week 16. The Jaguars can play spoiler here and try to finish strong.
Editors Note: (from Blythe Brumleve--also HUGE Jags Fan)
When I first saw this review with the prediction of 4-12, I must say I had some big reserves on whether or not to nix this portion of Rob's NFL season preview series. (which has been incredible so far!). With any fan, its really hard to be negative on your own team as I have just as much "high hopes" as any other Jag fan. But its also important to show the opposite view which is why I left Rob's article "as-is".
But I can't let a Jag preview go without putting my opinion on it:
The Jaguars were admittedly in a rebuilding year during the 2009 season as they were one of the youngest in the league. This is the 2nd year for many members of the team (they are collectively one of the youngest teams in the league) are gelling and looking more solid in the preseason games. A Defensive line and draft pick that was absolutely roasted in taking Tyson Alualu at the 10th overall spot has been the surprising bright spot during the preseason. If Alualu can keep up the production he has already shown, this will justify Gene Smith taking him so early.
Barring extensive injuries, I believe the Jags will have at least 7 wins and I'm really thinking we could have 10 if we get hot. QB Garrard can be excellent, especially with the fire of competition behind him with McCown making a strong preseason debut. In the past, Garrard has been a victim of a unimaginative play calls, prohibiting him from his running game (think 2007 playoffs vs Steelers) and last year threw behind a full rookie o-line (with the exception of Meester). This year the O-line and D-line were completely readdressed. We have a solid RB, decent QB and surprising WR's in Sims-Walker and Thomas.
Just remember, the Jags were in the playoff hunt last year until we dropped 4 straight to end the season (the 2nd game of that streak was the game vs Indy which deflated the entire team and fan base) with a bitter defeat in the last few minutes of the game.
This hopeful Jags fan is calling for a 10-6 season!
