03 September 2010
By: Rob Lazlo
Additions, Departures, Big Questions & Key Match-ups
2009 Record: 9-7
2010 Prediction: 9-7
The Falcons lost both starting QB Matt Ryan and starting HB Michael Turner to injuries last season, so an improvement on 2009’s 9-7 record is a given, right? Well, maybe. Ryan was only gone for two games, and back up Chris Redman posted more or less comparable quarterback numbers in his absence. Missing Turner for five games hurt, to be sure, but the Falcons went 2-3 in the games he didn’t play, and in the three losses their defense gave up 34 points twice and 26 in the other. So the Falcons see-saw season in 2009 was not solely the product of injuries. Going into the regular season, the Falcons are an NFC playoff bubble team (along with teams like Philadelphia, Arizona & New York), so the difference between 2009 and 2010 might be a few bounces of the ball. . .or nothing at all.
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Key Arrivals
CB Dunta Robinson (FA), LB Sean Weather spoon (R), DT Corey Peters (R), S Matt Giordano (FA), OG Mike Johnson (R)
Key Departures
CB Tye Hill, CB Chris Houston, S Antoine Harris
Good Enough? The Falcons tandem of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are out to prove they are.
The Big Questions
1. Will the Falcons offense be better than the average year they had in 2009? In 2008, the Falcons handed Michael Turner the ball 376 times, which is ridiculous. They were certainly looking to protect then-rookie QB Matt Ryan and, I suspect, when they realized how many good things were happening with the ball in Turner’s hands, they just couldn’t stop. Last season, Turner got 178 carries in 11 games, so clearly the Falcons, even before Turner’s injury, were looking to balance out the offense. Seeking to balance out a potentially dominant running game, the Falcons’ problem is that their passing attack is really just, well, average. Matt Ryan is a good young QB, but he’s not great, and he hasn’t been great at any point. Thus far, there’s no reason to suspect that Ryan is suddenly about to boost his passer rating from the mid 80s to the low 100s, so what you see, so far anyway, is what you will get. Like the QB, the receiving corps for the Falcons is good, not great. Roddy White is a good, not great #1. Add in a still-great TE in Tony Gonzaelz but subtract a sub-par group of wide receivers behind White and the receivers are. . .average. Someone needs to step up in the Falcons offense to boost their status. And I don’t see it happening. Look for the offense to be fairly similar to what it was in 2009.
2. Have the Falcons addressed their most glaring weakenss - pass defense? You tell me. They replaced Chris Houston with Dunta Robinson. To me, that’s not a big improvement, and given that Houston is three years younger, you could argue there is still some unused upside there that Robinson doesn’t have. The big problem for the Falcons though is the pass rush. The Falcons finished in the bottom five in sacks last year, tied with Seattle and Tampa and just behind St. Louis & Detroit. Nice company. And where are all the sacks supposed to come from in 2010? Last year’s sack leader Jonathan Babineaux had 6, and he’s buried on the Falcons’ depth chart at the moment. Second on the team was John Abraham with 5.5, and he’s 35 years old. The d-line will get a little boost by the return of Peria Jerry, last year’s 1st round draft pick, but playing two defensive tackles (Jerry & rookie Corey Peters) with one game of NFL experience between them is not usually a good way to improve any aspect of a defense. I think the Falcons still have a glaring weakness headed into this season, and look for teams to throw early and often against them.
3. Who are the playmakers? As pointed out, there aren’t any. Michael Turner is a grind it ahead runner, not a homerun hitter out of the backfield. Roddy White caught 11 touchdowns last season and does have some breakaway speed, so he is clearly the best the Falcons have on offense. On defense there is no one. There is no bone crushing hitter in the secondary, no ferocious pass rusher up front. The Falcons defense features a number of solid players, but they lack a game changer, and the Falcons’ fortunes are unlikely to change until they acquire a few on both sides of the ball.
Key Matchups
Week 3 @New Orleans: The Saints are the favorite in the South, and they’re the team the Falcons need to get past to be considered a real contender. This is an early test and it’s at New Orleans, but Atlanta can change the nature of their season with a win here.
Week 6 @Philadelphia: I have both of these teams finishing 9-7, with the Eagles going to the playoffs by virtue of the head to head tiebreaker. If I’m right, then this game decides the ultimate fate of both these teams (even if it is week 6).
Week 14 @Carolina: I have a feeling playing the Panthers late in the season is going to be a less inviting prospect than playing them early. Atlanta gets them twice in the last four weeks, and I think the Falcons need to do better than split with their division rivals if they want to make the playoffs. This game could turn out to be a lot more interesting than it looks on the schedule right now.
