| 29 January 2012
Who will take home the season’s final prize?
Here’s my list of the players in the running, in order of likelihood.
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Tom Brady - The most likely MVP is the QB of the team that wins. That's a given. Brady is the obvious 1st choice for MVP, especially if you believe, as I do, that the Patriots will win this game. He’s also one of just four players (with Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana) to have already won the award multiple times. The downside: Brady looked shaky against the Ravens.
Eli Manning - If the Giants win, it's hard to imagine anyone besides Eli getting the MVP. He won it the last time the Giants won the Super Bowl, and the real star of that game was the defense. They really have no other big time offensive player who's going to wrest this game away from Brady and the Pats and Eli has had a big season and is a known clutch performer. The downside: the Giants are less likely to win in a shootout, which features the two QBs.
Rob Gronkoski - the Patriots biggest, most effective weapon has the ability to dominate a game. Gronk will need in the neighborhood of 10 catches and 2 TDs to get consideration, but it's doable. The downside: no TE has ever won a Super Bowl MVP.
Wes Welker - No receiver has ever clicked with Brady like Wes Welker, and he's still a top target for the Pats' QB. The downside: I really only think Welker gets this award if a) It's a blowout; and b) He winds up with two big (60+ yard) TD's AND a handful of other catches.
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Ahmad Bradshaw - The Giants will never give up on the run, and if they jump on the Pats early, Bradshaw could win this award somewhat by default, the way OJ Anderson won it when the Giants beat the Bills. The downside: it's hard to imagine Bradshaw truly dominating the Super Bowl like some of the great RBs of the past.
Victor Cruz - The Giants "WR from out of nowhere" has become their go-to man in the passing game, and he's responded big-time. The downside: if the Giants win a shootout, it's hard to imagine that Cruz would beat out Eli for the MVP.
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Jason Pierre-Paul - It's nearly impossible to pick a defensive MVP ahead of time, but if you're going to go with one, JPP is your best bet. He'll need 2 sacks or more, and a forced turnover, plus something else to get it done. The downside: this is not a game that's likely to get decided by defensive dominance, and like I said, it's awfully hard to single-out one guy. If the Giants' D dominates, who's to say Justin Tuck won't be the guy who accumulates the big stats, or someone in the secondary may get a couple of picks.
Julian Edelman - Think of the Pats three-way player as the wildcard or darkhorse pick here. It's a tough sell, but what if Edelman forces a turnover or two on defense AND catches a touchdown or otherwise makes a more significant than usual offensive combination AND makes a big play on special teams? Fun to think about. The downside: it's a 1000-1 shot that a player like this wins the MVP.
