7 Things to Watch For in Sunday's Colts Falcons games

Hey! I know you! Now you are me!

Last week, the Colts came out flat and got flattened. This week, they return home to take on the Atlanta Falcons. Geeze, talk about your inspiring matchups. Here's what to watch for this week:

1. Watch for trading places. When the Colts and Falcons last played, Atlanta was reeling from the fallout from Michael Vick and on their way to a 4-12 season, while the Colts were rolling towards 13-3. Four years later the Colts are winless, and the Falcons' ship has righted. At 4-3, they expect to make the playoffs and be contender in the NFC. The Falcons are a good case study for Colts fans. They dropped off the table when Vick when to prison, but righted the ship the very next season. The NFL is a right now league. Rebuilding does not take years. I know that right now, it feels like everything is a mess, and in fairness, it might not look great next year either (see point 2), but by 2013 at the latest, the Colts will be an elite team again.

Elia McCalla checks in with another study about who is likely to finish with the #1 overall pick (data through week 7)

As a follow up to the question of how many (or few) wins it takes to get the top pick in the draft, it seemed worthwhile to determine which teams might "earn" an early draft slot this year. So far in 2011, there are 15 teams that have won half or fewer than half of their games, with between 0 and 3 wins. While most of these teams are legitimately subpar, only 6 or 7 games into the season, a handful of them might be more the victims of bad luck than bad play and can still turn things around. In other cases, they really are that bad and may have a shot at drafting first overall.

To close in on which teams are which, I started by looking at 3 ratings for all 15 teams: win percentage, point differential per game, and total DVOA.

Half price tickets and a discount? 

Heck yeah.

The Colts are home this week and looking for a big crowd. So here is your chance to get 50% off tickets to the game whether you want sideline seats or nosebleeds. The deal is brought to you by our partner TiqIQ and their new feature that lets you pick your own price -- like Priceline.com (always less than retail) with no shipping or handling fees of any kind. The price you pick is the total price you pay.

Listen, just CLICKING on these links helps me out, and opens the door for you get great deals. I used TiqIq in Week 2. I got tickets for less than half face value. Remember when my brother gave away tickets to the season opener, leaving me out in the cold? TiqIq came through.

As a deal for our readers, sign up to pick your price and get a free $20 added to your account to help with your ticket purchase. Yes – that means you can get tickets for half off AND get an additional $20 off at check out. The $20 off is only good this week, so why not use the free cash to see the Colts in person this weekend?

It's a rough season, but come Sunday afternoon, the Luke will STILL be the funnest place to be. You hate Ian Eagle and Ron Pitts? ME TOO! Just imagine if you could have gone to last week's game and sat in the sun instead of listening to Solomon Wilcotts?

I MEAN SERIOUSLY.

Go to the game folks. You'll be glad you did.

Like many fans, Ajit Kirpekar has been critical of Bill Polian's drafts recently. Unlike many fans, he took the time to do some research to see if his complaints were valid. I think you'll find his conclusions fascinating.

If you are a Colts fan like me, this has been a very strange and surreal season.  I admit, before the lockout was lifted, I had very high hopes for the team. Despite FO’s rather pessimistic outlook, there were many reasons to expect a bounce back year, injuries being the primary one. But of course, injury’s and the Colts seem to go hand in hand, and as it turns out, the Colts' motto of “next man up” really applies to every player but one. The 2010 Colts were a deeply flawed team that Manning dragged to the postseason. What’s more remarkable than the 2010 Colts winning 10 games was the fact that had it not been for a Josh Scobee 60 yard field goal and two inanely foolish timeouts by Caldwell, the Colts might have won 11 games and advanced to 2^nd round.  Such was Manning’s greatness and his absence effectively put the nail in the 2011 season.

After the 62-7 smack down by the Saints, Colts fans unanimously felt that both Caldwell and Coyer deserved the axe. However, what is a much stickier and more debated issue revolves around the Polians. Nate, as many of you know, has routinely railed against the anti-Polian camp. I personally have never been a fan of Polians. Even back in 2009, I saw a flawed roster that was overly reliant on its elite stars.  Throughout the decade, the Colts have provided an interesting case study on just how valuable a transcending player can be. Freeney, Clark, Glenn, Wayne, Sanders, James, Stokley and others have all been injured at one point or have moved on and yet the Colts continued their winning ways. As far as I was concerned, how could anyone continue to praise Polian with the apparent lack of talent supporting Manning?  Wasn’t the fact that the Steelers and Patriots managed to win despite missing their QBs a clear sign that all was not right with Polian?

Partly due to my back and forth with Nate, I decided to look into the evidence myself. I constructed a table that recorded every draft choice from 1993 to 2010 and tried to grade their draft value based on their career ( I’ll explain more on this later). There are two major things that jump out, and I can say that the results did indeed surprise me. I will leave it to the reader to come up with his or her own measured conclusions, but I do want to say that my results neither absolve nor condemn the Polians.  After all, GM duties include more than just drafting players. There are many elements and roles to the front office and the success of a player being drafted can be as much about coaching as scouting. The best thing we can do is consider as much of the evidence as we can before making our judgments.

My new book Invincible, Indiana is ready for pre-order! A digital version is on sale NOW!

Official Description:

Dale Cooper arrived in tiny Invincible, Indiana determined to coach his way to a better job. He never bargained for a clueless principal, a bitter star, a racist point guard, and a town fiercely proud of 49 consecutive seasons of finishing exactly .500. When it becomes apparent to Dale that neither the town nor his players have any interest in winning, he devises a way to turn everyone's expectations upside down. His gambit forces Invincible to strive for greatness if only to keep their dreams of mediocrity alive.

Set in 1996-1997, Invincible, Indiana explores the myths and motivations that led to the demise of the 'single class tournament' that was the bedrock of Indiana mythology. Both funny and heartbreakingly serious, Invincible, Indiana unpacks the core of the Hoosier state's love affair with basketball. Invincible, Indiana will make you laugh, cry, and cheer, but most of all it will make you rethink everything you thought you knew about the hysteria that was basketball in Indiana.

Author Nate Dunlevy is already one of the most popular voices in Indiana sports coverage. His first book, Blue Blood: Tales of Glory of the Indianapolis Colts, explored the fragile history of the Colts as they fought for a place at the table and struggled to overcome the basketball bias inherent in Indiana. Now he takes on the traumatic final days of one class basketball, using the travails of fictional Invincible, Indiana to consider questions of greatness, fate, and the full court press.

HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:

1. The book is currently available for pre-order at Madison House Publishing. Starting November 8, it will be available on Amazon.com and other retailers. Buy a presale copy, and you can get it personalized.

2. The non-Kindle formatted PDF is availble for sale now.

3. For the next week only, you can read a sample version of the book for free. Try it. If you like it, buy it. Pass on the sample to someone else. Yes. That's right. PIRATE THIS BOOK! I'm convinced that if you read it, you'll love it. The sample PDF is not optimized or formatted in any way. It's just that, a sample. The book is there, but it is not in the same format a real copy is. This will be available until November 8 ONLY! 

4. Kindle specific versions go on sale next Tuesday as well, but you can always buy the PDF and have Amazon convert it.

5. You can order Invincible, Indiana together with Blue Blood for a discount, and get a digital copy of Invincible, Indiana for free!

WE ARE THROWING A PARTY!

Come down to the Indianapolis Colts Grille from 6:00-7:30 PM on Monday, November 14!

10% off your meal if you buy a copy of Invincible, Indiana, at the signing!

I'll be there to sign books and talk football, basketball or whatever you want. So come join us downtown, just off the circle for fun, food, and books!

With the Colts 0-8 at midseason a top 10 pick seems certain, a top 5 pick likely and Indy is on pace for the top pick. But what to do with that high pick? Right now there are 10 players who look like locks to go in the top 20 (assuming the enter the draft) and likely top 10 picks.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

When the debate isn't "Should he go #1 overall?" it's "How long has it been since a better QB prospect came out of college?" you know you've got a fantastic talent. Luck is a 3rd year starter in a pro-style offense with prototypical size (6'4" 230lbs), a strong arm and a bit of mobility. As a freshman he completed 56.3% of his passes and 4 INTs to 13 TDs. He would greatly improve on those the following year completing over 70% of his passes and throwing 32 TDs to 8 INTs. So far this season he's completing 72% of his passes and has thrown 4 picks to 23 touchdowns.

Matt Kalil, LT, Southern Cal

In most years Matt Kalil would be in the discussion for the number one overall pick. Last year's 9th overall pick Tyron Smith played right tackle at USC because he was the 2nd best OT on the team, to Kalil. At 6'7" 295lbs he has a bit of filling out to do, but that's nitpicking a guy with the talent and technique to make up for being a couple pounds light.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Blackmon isn't quite on pace to match his 2010 season, but given that he caught 111 passes for 1,782 yards and 20 TDs in 2010 and isn't that far off the pace, it can be excused. Blackmon isn't huge or blazing fast, but he's not small or slow by any means. He runs good routes, has fantastic hands and uses what size he does have (6'1" 211lbs) very well to keep DBs away from the ball. A DUI in-season last year isn't a ringing endorsement of his character, but it seems to be his only incident.

Quinton Coples, DE/DT, North Carolina

Coples is a big (6'6" 285lbs) disruptive lineman with over 20 sacks and 30 TFLs to his name in his career to date. Inconsistent play and questions as to whether he'll be an effective edge rusher at the NFL level are the main concerns. Is Coples Mario Williams, a similarly massive DE who's inconsistency concerned many, or is he Jamaal Anderson, a big talented lineman who just lacks the super-elite athleticism required to be an effective pass rusher from the DE spot? His strong play against the run and experience inside means he should be an effective player, but he's one of the easiest to see not living up to his draft position.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Jeffery is a freak of nature. At 6'4" 237lbs he looks like a TE (and abuses DBs in the redzone like one). After breaking the 1,500 yard mark last season his production has fallen off steaply thanks to horrendous QB play. Whether Jeffery will be able to get separation at the pro level is the main concern. He's faster than a man of that size should be, but won't be running away from quality DBs. He also needs to stay in shape, the first suggestion by google for "Alshon Jeffery" is "Alshon Jeffery fat" which isn't totally unfair.

Jonathan Martin, LT, Stanford

The man protecting Luck's blindside won't have to wait long after his QBs name is called. He's not the uber-prospect Kalil is, but he's a very talented OT with few weaknesses, just not the upside of Kalil.

Matt Barkley, QB, USC

Barkley is a bit smaller, a bit less productive and doesn't have nearly as strong of an arm as Andrew Luck. None of those make him a bad QB prospect, but you do have to be concerned about him being Matt Leinart 2.0. While USC was dealt a major blow by the NCAA Barkley is still surrounded by some of the best talent in college football. Can he be as effective on a more even playing field?

Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

If you're fed up with small corners Kirkpatrick is a good player to be keeping an eye on. A 2nd year starter, Kirkpatrick is 6'3" 195lbs. He doesn't have elite speed, but uses his size well. In a system that gives him help over the top he should excell. He has been inconsistent being beaten more often than a player of his caliber should.

Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

Jones is a big, productive, accurate and strong armed QB prospect. Where he seems to struggle is when pressured, made worse by his very limited mobility. Jones seems to consistently perform as well as his protection.

Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
A playmaking corner in man coverage, Claiborne doesn't have Kirkpatrick's size but has decent size and plays hard against the run. A standout WR in high school Claiborne shows far better hands and skill with the ball in his hands than is the norm for defensive backs.

Personally I'm only in favor of drafting Luck if Peyton isn't going to be able to play 2+ more years. You can't sit the number one overall pick for 2 years and you can't trade Peyton Manning. If Peyton is coming back and wants to play out his deal, you trade the #1 pick and add talent that'll give you several great shots at a title before Peyton is done. My personal favorites are Kalil and Blackmon (who I'd be good with taking as high as #2) and Claiborne (who is more of a 6th to 16th kind of guy). 

There are words and phrases that I hate.

Among my least favorite these days is, "Held accountable".

"The Coaches should be held accountable!" "The Polians should be held accountable!" "Jim Irsay should be held accountable!"

What does that even mean? Blamed? Fired? Given a stern talking to?

I believe people should say what they mean instead of tossing around weak euphemisms devoid of meaning. The Colts dropped to 0-8 yesterday in lackluster fashion.

You can take your accountability straight to the unemployment line.

I've been steadfast in arguing that this dumpster fire of a season was inevitable. I don't believe a better coaching staff would have won more than a game or so this year. I also don't believe this coaching staff has a clue what they are doing and it's the wrong crew to lead the Colts going forward.

I've also been adamant that the Colts front office should not be fired, and that anyone claiming they should be is either incredibly short-sighted or rankly self-involved. The Colts have just had an unprecedented run of success, and one losing season, no matter how bad, does not undo or invalidate that. It's foolish to say otherwise.

That doesn't mean there haven't been mistakes by the front office. There have been. There are four primary areas in which the Polians particularly deserve blame for the mess that is 2011:

Titans 27 Colts 10

Here's today's Open Thread for the Colts Titans game game.

I'll be on Twitter all afternoon, as well as be checking in here.

Be sure to check out our Gameday Follow List for the other 18to88.com writers, as well as the best local and national voices.

Go Horse!

It's back, but not how we'd like.

Who To Root For has been a reader favorite for a couple of years now, and for the rest of the season, we'll be going through the NFL schedule pointing out who Colts fans need to root for in order for Indy to get the #1 overall pick.

Notes: 1. We always root for the Colts. Draft picks be damned. Wins are precious and you never spit on one.

2. Ties in the draft order are decided by a strength of schedule tiebreak. The worst schedule is granted the higher pick.

3. I consider the primary challengers in order to be: Miami, Saint Louis, Denver, Seattle, Arizona, Jacksonville.

EASY CALLS:

Dolphins over GIANTS

Jaguars over TEXANS

RAMS over Saints

Cardinals over RAVENS

BRONCOS over Lions

SEAHAWKS over Bengals

Several of these games help the Colts by not only giving wins to bad teams, but they would also help to weaken the Indy strength of schedule.

TOUGH CALLS:

BILLS over the Redskins

Patriots over the STEELERS

49ERS over Browns

EAGLES over Cowboys

Chargers over CHIEFS

The Bills and Pats are both in the AFC East, which means Miami plays them twice. Wins for those teams makes the Miami SOS go up. Because I believe at this moment Miami is more likely to be a player for the #1 pick than St. Louis, Colts fans should root FOR the AFC East. Indy played the Browns, so we need them to lose. Same with the Chiefs. The Eagles are only at 2 wins, so lets root for them to get to 3 or 4, because I consider 4 wins the absolute ceiling for the Colts this year.