For those who enjoyed my Q/A with Tom Gower, you can check out my answers to him over at Total Titans.

I also checked in with Titans Blog.

One note: the links for Invincible, Indiana just link back here for the being. The book goes on pre-sale on Tuesday.

Finally, I'll be on with Jersey Johnny tomorrow. The show runs from 3-6 on 93.1 WIBC. I'll be on around 3:45.

7 Things to Watch for in Sunday's Colts/Titans Game

I think Indy has an outside chance this week. Is this where I am?

Last week, well let's pretend last week never happened, shall we? This week the Colts face a winnable game against the Titans who also got spanked last week, only at home and to a slightly worse team than the one who best the Colts. Here's what to watch for:

1. Watch for random stats that have no direct bearing on the game but interest me, so I want to bring them up here. From 2000-2009, there have been 57 players taken from picks 27-32 in the NFL draft. 14 of them became Pro Bowlers. 1/4 players picked in the bottom 5-6 picks of the first round went to the Pro Bowl. The Colts have drafted after pick 27 SEVEN TIMES in that span (eight if you count 2010). They drafted two Pro Bowlers (Wayne and Addai). That's 29% Pro Bowlers in the first round, just above league average. Note that twice, they didn't pick at all in the first round, and went 1/2 (Sanders and Ugoh). Now PLEASE can we stop talking about how 'bad' the Colts drafts have been? It's like people never bother to look at what kind of talent is actually there. By the way, from 2007-2009, no pick from 27-32 has made a Pro Bowl. None. Oh, and no one in the first 5 picks of the second round has either. Yes, no one picked from 27-37 has made a Pro Bowl since 2006.

Every year, my absolute favorite Q/A is with Tom Gower of the Total Titans and Football Outsiders. Tom's work is insightful and often hilarious. He was kind enough to answer these questions. My answers to him will be up on Total Titans later.

Do yourself a favor and read this whole thing. It's outstanding.

Compare and contrast the Kerry Collins era to the Matt Hasselbeck era?

Kerry Collins kind of had a couple different eras in his time in Tennessee. At first, it was "why on earth did you bring this guy in less than two weeks before the first regular season game and insist on starting him," which got him benched after three games and Vince Young inserted into the lineup on a full-time basis, a decision I was fully on board with. As a backup in 2007 and then as a starter in 2008, Collins had transitioned into the cagey veteran role. He wasn't a great quarterback, but could read the occasional defense, complete passes against teams concentrating on playing the run, and was more than willing to harmlessly throw the ball away rather than take a sack. Kerry Collins the last two years of his Titans tenure transitioned from "cagey veteran" to "veteran whose shelf life is pretty close to up." He spent too much time throwing the ball away, bailing out of plays, and made more bad decisions with the ball than he had previously, part of which was the arm started to fail him, part of which was he just didn't seem to be seeing things he used to be able to see.

Six games in, I'm not sure how much of a "Matt Hasselbeck era" there is, but he is different. For the first time in a number of years, the Titans have a quarterback who's good at throwing short and intermediate timing routes with great accuracy. He's also proven pretty proficient in his own right at avoiding the sack, primarily by doing a good job of throwing in rhythm on 3- and 5-step drop throws.

It's only partially related to the quarterback, but new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer has implemented a system of wide receiver running option routes where they're required to read the coverage instead of many more plays where they're running patterns, as was the norm under Mike Heimerdinger (RIP). Hasselbeck has done what seems like a good job of executing the new system.

Open Thread today. Topics of note:

-Went to the tasting yesterday at the Indianapolis Colts Grille. Very nice place. It's not really a sports bar. It's got much more of an upscale feel to it. The food was good, beyond your normal deep fried bar offerings. Nice place. Check it out.

-I'm getting a little testy with the "Fire Polian" wackos. Here's an idea: if the argument you are using for attacking Polian would be considered stupid for attacking Manning (the Colts lost a playoff game!), maybe you should put more thought into your position. I'm starting to feel like a lot of this is being driven by a few people who think they have something to gain from the Colts replacing the GM. In sports, you typically don't dump the GM who took you to the playoffs 11 times in 14 years. The position is so ludicrous, I have a hard time taking seriously anyone who suggests it.

-I'm still confused what people thought they were getting out of this season. If Indy was 2-5, they'd still be missing the playoffs, but would people be so upset? I can't understand why 0-7 is any worse. Is it gambling? Is that it? I don't get it.

-People who think the Colts need a complete overhaul (like one article I read yesterday), don't understand that defense is HIGHLY variable in the NFL. Defenses can be fixed quickly. Again, this isn't the NBA or MLB. You don't 'build' for years in the NFL. The Colts need a couple of players and some new defensive coaching, and the defense will radically turn around. That's what happens every year in the NFL. The Jags were 32nd in DVOA in defense last year. They are 6th this year. Houston went from 31st to 11th. Denver 30th to 17th. Seattle 29th to 12th. Buffalo 28th to 20th. Every one of the bottom five defenses in 2010 jumped at least 8 spots this year.

I know it's counter-intuitive, but the Colts defense will be much, much better next year if they dump Coyer. It's just what happens. Offense is hard to build. It's also very solid in Indy if Manning is back. The defense is bad, yes, but it's not hard to fix. Remember: defense is variable. Offense is stable.

-So Collins is on IR. Guess that went as badly as possible. It was obviously a massive mistake from the start. I didn't think so, and neither did anyone else I remember at the time not named Reggie Wayne or Curtis Painter's Mom.

Have at it.

Reader Thomas H checks in with this interesting idea for rating a coaching staff. Kick it around as open thread today: how do grade coaching staffs?

I live in Cleveland, Ohio.  5 weeks into the 2011 NFL season and Browns fans were jumping all over the head coach – Pat Shurmur.  Is he a good coach?  Is he a bad coach?  Is he just mediocre?  Who knows?  Who can say?

I wondered, at 2-2, is Pat Shurmur a better head coach than Jim Caldwell at 0-5?  By record, Pat Shurmur is better.  But, is he really a better head coach than Jim Caldwell?

I spoke with many people about the issue of grading a head coach and his coaching staff.  It was recommended that I grade on the following:  red-zone offensive efficiency; red-zone defensive efficiency; player potential versus potential realized; reviewing every individual coaching position by responsibility and effectiveness; etc…  I was thinking more of grading a coaching staff based on the following criteria:  team record; team record adjusted to account for improvement over last year; offensive, defensive, and special teams effectiveness (Total DVOA); strength of schedule; team unity and cohesiveness (the coach’s ability to control his players and staff, as well as his ability to avoid in-game and game-losing gaffes).

I considered including 2 more elements to the grading criteria:  the loss of an MVP-caliber player; and additional points gained for making the playoffs (seed # 1 & 2 = best; seed # 3 & 4 = next best; seed # 5 & 6 = next next best; else zero).  I resisted adding the first because the Patriots lost Tom Brady for the season in game 1 and still won 11 games that season.  The loss of an MVP-caliber player meant absolutely nothing in that instance. Why should the coach get extra bonus points for losing a great player when the other players picked it up, kept going, and had a successful year? Regarding the second point – scoring based on playoff seeding – a large part of that is outside the power and control of the coaching staff.  Some of the seeding is luck, some depends on which conference and/or division the team is in.  Look at the 2010 Seahawks.  Do a 7-9 record and a wildcard birth really warrant giving the coaching staff extra points?  In any other division in the league, 7-9 would have been mediocre and would not have warranted a playoff spot.  Since the coaching staff can’t control for luck and conference / division placement, I decided not to grade on it. As a result, I excluded both of these elements from my grading process.

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There have been some bad days in Colts history.

Last night was the worst.

When faced with an especially humiliating loss, there's a temptation to overreact.

We've seen the Colts get waxed before. Everyone remembers how important it was that the team didn't freak-out after the shellacking at the hands of the Jaguars in 2006.

When faced with a 62-7 beat down that was every bit as bad as the score indicated, however, it is impossible to overreact.

Seriously, what move could the front office make in this situation that could possibly be considered an overreaction? The loss Sunday night wasn't aberrant. It was the obvious culmination of everything that is wrong with the Colts coaching staff. You can blame players all day, but what I saw Sunday night was not about players as much as it was a coaching staff determined to do nothing to help them.

The Saints did not punt or commit a turnover until the 2:56 mark of the game. Awful, yes, and some people will say that's due to the lack of defensive talent. I ask you though: what's the difference between last night and the second half of the Super Bowl when the Colts managed to give up 18 points in three drives, all while forcing ONE third down the entire half?  The only difference: the Indy offense was on the field more. If the Saints had had five drives that half, they might have scored 30 points.

Obviously, there's no way Larry Coyer should be employed. What I saw last night was the most completely collapse of a scheme in history. The Cover-2 is supposed to be simple and easy to execute, but Coyer has managed to make it so complicated that none of his defenders seem to have any idea what they are doing. When an offense destroys a defense that completely, there's nothing to say other than that the defensive coordinator completely failed to do his job. I've never seen a coach so completely fail since, well Coyer faced Peyton Manning in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004. Coyer has no idea what he's doing. None. He literally had no plan to stop the Saints. It's like he watched the film, shrugged his shoulders in defeat, and let his defense mill about aimlessly for a couple of hours. That's how bad his 'scheme' was.

Oh, but lest you think I'm going to lay all this at the feet of Larry Coyer (an easy and obvious scapegoat that no one has every liked), consider this next statement:

The Colts opened in a no-huddle.

Just let that simmer for a moment.

Someone on the Indianapolis Colts staff added these components up and came to this conclusion:

Curtis Painter+Dome road game+high powered offense on the other side of the field+a bottle of Jack Daniels=RUN A NO HUDDLE OFFENSE!

I have no words for my contempt for that plan. It's so asinine that quite literally no one else in football history would have tried it.

Saints (a lot) Colts (not very many)

Here's today's Open Thread for the Colts Saints game game.

I'll be on Twitter all afternoon, as well as be checking in here.

Be sure to check out our Gameday Follow List for the other 18to88.com writers, as well as the best local and national voices.

Go Horse!

Andrew Aziz of Everything Colts checks in with another preview this week.

What the Colts Need To Do To Win

The most important thing is that the Colts need to play mistake free football. The main reason why they lost last week is because they turned-over the ball 3 times, one of which resulted in a defensive touchdown for the Bengals. I firmly believe that if the Colts did not make any turnovers last week, they would have won. Joseph Addai should be back so he should add a spark like he did last year vs the Raiders. The Saints defense is nothing to go crazy about being ranked 17th in total yards, 14th in rush defense, and 19th in pass defense. The offense is not a huge problem, they just need to keep the ball away from hawks like Jabari Greer, Tracy Porter, and Roman Harper. The offensive line has to also come through as Will Smith, Shaun Rogers and Cameron Jordan are great pass rushers and if they get to Painter, turnovers could happen.

The dependent variable. The defense has to come through. Their rushing game is not a huge problem as Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Darren Sproles could come in on some running plays, but he's mostly effective and used in the passing game. The pass defense has to be spot on, like the Steelers game, plus the linebackers need to be very active making tackles. I don't want to see Antoine Bethea having to make touchdown saving tackles. The big thing on defense is stopping Drew Brees. For starters, he's the guy who beat the Colts in Super Bowl 44, and has passed for more than 350 yards in the last 4 games (NFL Record). Marques Colston is back, plus they have the best tight end in football right now in Jimmy Graham. They also have deep threats in Devery Henderson and a great reliable receiver in Lance Moore. Also, they can dump it off to Darren Sproles and he can turn a 2 yard pass into a 75 yard touchdown... just look at the 2007 and 2008 Colts - Chargers playoff game. The Colts have to cause turnovers, cause they ain't shutting down one of the best QBs in the league. I'm being completely honest, they need some tip balls or they need to pressure him and let him throw the long bomb and hopefully a safety will be there to pick it off. Turnovers is what we need to win. The Colts should also watch out for Darren Sproles on punt return, because he could definitely take it to the house. no comments

Before a I get to the winners of this week's Name that Colt contest, let me remind you all to tune in to WIBC 93.1 today at 3:15. I'll be talking Colts football with Jersey Johnny.

Now, back to the contest. If you'll recall the prize is a $25 gift certificate to the Indianapolis Colts Grille. I'm giving two prizes today: Best Nickname and Funniest Nickname. There were over 100 entries, and picking the winners was difficult.

For those who don't win, there's still a great opportunity to head down to the Colts Grille this Tuesday night from 5-8 pm. There's a free tasting of the food at the Grille, so RSVP and give it a try. I'll be heading down there sometime after 5:30, so stop by and say hi!

Now, without futher ado, here are my favorite entries from the contest, followed by the winners: